A Breakthrough in Clean Energy?

In a massive step forward in fusion energy, the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has run a fusion reaction that created more energy than what was put in to start the reaction. The fusion reaction generated 3.15 megajoules of energy compared to the 2.05 megajoules that were put into the system to initiate the reaction. While a net energy gain of 1.10 megajoules doesn’t seem like a lot, it has many repercussions within the world of clean energy. This experiment is seen by many scientists as proof that fusion power can be a source of clean energy in the future.

Dr. Kim Budil, director of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, during the news conference at the Department of Energy in Washington.

A fusion reaction occurs when two atoms collide into each other until they fuse, which results in a release of energy. In this case, two heavy isotopes of hydrogen are used as fuel: deuterium and tritium, with lithium used as a stabilizing agent. A fusion reaction can be reached through inertial confinement or magnetic confinement. The reaction at NIF was created through inertial confinement, which uses lasers to generate x-rays that rapidly compress and heat a tiny capsule of fuel until a plasma is formed and nuclei start colliding. However, most fusion scientists believe that magnetic confinement is a better option for eventually commercializing fusion energy. Fusion within magnetic confinement occurs within a doughnut-shaped reactor called a tokamak, which relies on magnets to hold the fuel in place and reaches a plasma state through electric current and radio waves.

There are several reasons why scientists look to fusion as a source of clean energy. One perk of using fusion as energy is that the two elements needed within the reaction – hydrogen and lithium – are widely available in many parts of the world. Most importantly, fusion does not produce harmful atmospheric emissions or long-lived nuclear waste. Since a fusion reaction is simply combining two hydrogen atoms, it creates helium, which is an inert gas. While the tritium isotope is radioactive, it has a short half-life and is produced and consumed in the fusion reaction. A fusion reactor also cannot cause a nuclear accident like a fission reactor since plasma has to be kept at a very high temperature and is contained within the reactor. Each small shift in the working configuration of the reactor causes the plasma to cool or a loss of containment, which would automatically stop the reaction within a few seconds.

While the test performed at NIF proves that fusion power could be a source of clean energy, we are far from that becoming a reality. The next step in fusion energy is to produce much more energy than what is put into the system. The current lasers that NIF uses to power the fusion reaction take in more power from the grid than they provide the reactor. While there was net energy gain from the fusion system, creating that 3.15 megajoules took about 300 megajoules from the grid. More efficient laser technology has been developed since the lasers used by NIF were designed, which may help in producing more of a net energy gain, but we are still nowhere near applying fusion energy commercially. In the meantime, we need to turn towards other sources of clean and renewable energy.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently released their 2022 report regarding the renewable sector, their analysis based on current market policies and developments. In this report, they forecast the deployment of renewable energy technologies in electricity, transport, and heat for the 2022-2027 period and discuss key challenges to the renewable industry and identify barriers to accelerated progress. Their analysis contextualizes current policy and market dynamics within the current global energy crisis associated with higher prices and lowered energy security that has been exacerbated by the ongoing invasion of Ukraine by Russia, bringing about an unprecedented global effort to shift towards renewables.

In the IEA’s main-case forecast, global renewable capacity is expected to increase by 2,400 GW (approx. 75%), equal to the current installed power capacity of the People’s Republic of China. Compared to the previous 5 years, this 85% acceleration on renewable capacity expansion results primarily from two factors. First, increased fossil fuel and electricity prices resulting from the current global energy crisis have made renewable power technologies more economically attractive, and second, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused energy importers reliant on fossil fuels to increasingly value the energy security benefits of renewable energy. The IEA’s forecast compared to last year’s was revised upwards by almost 30% as, despite energy market volatility, China, Europe, the United States, and India are implementing existing policies, market and regulatory reforms more quickly than anticipated to combat the energy crisis.

The IEA also forecasts that by early 2025, renewables will become the largest source of electricity generation, surpassing coal. More specifically, renewable’s share of the power mix is forecast to increase by 10% over the 5 year period, reaching 38% in 2027 – renewables are the only electricity generation source whose share is expected to grow, with declining shares for coal, natural gas, nuclear, and oil generation. Notably, electricity from wind and solar PV more than doubles in the next five years, providing almost 20% of global power generation in 2027, and will account for 80% of the global renewable generation over the forecast period.

All this to say, improved policies and efforts to increase global renewable energy capacity can narrow the gap to net zero emissions by 2050. In the IEA’s accelerated case, global renewable energy capacity can expand by an additional 25%, but only if countries can address policy, regulatory, permitting and financing challenges swiftly. In emerging economies, the primary barriers to accelerated renewable energy expansion are associated with policy and regulatory uncertainties, whereas advanced economies barriers to implementation, permitting, and grid infrastructure expansion. If countries are able to address their primary barriers, global renewable capacity could expand by nearly 3,000 GW; a faster increase would significantly narrow the gap between renewable electricity growth and what is required to reach net zero emissions by 2050.